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Home Aerospace & Aeronautics Forecasting the Geomagnetic Activity

Forecasting the Geomagnetic Activity


We have developed the software for real-time forecasting of geomagnetic indices, which uses readily available data from ACE and a number of ground stations. We are able to predict a geomagnetic storm 2-3 hours before commencement with 94.1% correlation and very low false alarm rate. The typical elapsed time per forecast is a few seconds on an average PC. The proposed system can also be useful for investigating of physical phenomena related to interactions between the solar wind and the magnetosphere – it has already helped uncovering two new geoeffective parameters.

Innovative Aspect and Main Advantages

  • Real-time forecasting;
  • Very precise (~95% correlation);
  • Small time lag (<1 hour);
  • Very fast operation (<5 sec/forecast);
  • High stability of the results;
  • Ability to construct phenomenological models of interaction between the solar wind and the terrestrial magnetosphere;
  • Ability to analyze spectral characteristics of the magnetosphere.

Areas of Application

Space weather, solar-terrestrial physics. The algorithms used in the developed software can be applied to forecast the behavior of any natural or technological system, which can be described with a nonlinear black box model.

A forecast example
Fig. 1 A forecast example

Stage of Development

8 scholarly articles were published in peer-reviewed journals. The software successfully passed online tests in 2008.

Contact Details

Space Research Institute National Academy and National Space Agency of Ukraine (SRI NAS and NSA of Ukraine)
Contact person: Aleksei Parnowski
Address: 40, korp. 4/1, Acad. Glushkov prosp., MSP, 03680, Kiev, Ukraine
Fax: (+380 44) 526 4124
E-mail: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

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