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Home Aerospace & Aeronautics Research and prediction of a state of population health and influence to it of the factors of solar activity

Research and prediction of a state of population health and influence to it of the factors of solar activity

Description

The informational technology of data processing about such vector statistical metric of population health of defined region as a daily amount of calls of the ambulance in connection with peaking some types of diseases is offered. For it the data about calls of the ambulance, classed in types of diseases (no-zologes) according to an International Statistical Classification of Illnesses are used. In particular, such as:

  1. disorder of mentality and behavior;
  2. illnesses of the nervous system and sense organs;
  3. illnesses of the system of blood circulation and so forth.

The card of call the ambulance contains the information on date and time of call, data about the patient (including his age and sex), diagnosis, time and character of the medical help etc. The data of such card, necessary for processing, are recorded in a Excel-datafile about calls of the ambulance for each exact day. Each such file – table of diseases of the people (with their data) on concrete date with decryption on nozologes. The source files (are grouped together on months) form a data bank. The package of programs for primary processing (in particular, averaging by the sliding polynomial window), analysis and imaging component of a data bank is created. The tendencies of time changes and outputs about possible correlations are illustrated by the generated tables and special graphics.

The given technology also includes a research of influence of the factors of solar activity on population health by comparison of their manifestations to the above-stated vector metric.

Innovative Aspect and Main Advantages

Analogs of an offered information technology, in particular in the field of researches of influence of the factors of solar activity on a state of population health, now are not known.

The main factor of novelty and main advantage is the strict scientific approach of setting and realization of researches of correlation between manifestations of solar activity and state of population health , that is based on getting and analysis of synchronous experimental data about changes of space weather and metric of state of population health (Lychak M.M. On influence of solar activity, that is accompanied by coronal mass ejections, on a population health // VI International Crimean Conference « COSMOS AND BIOSPHERE », 2005. Abstracts. P. 8-9.) Of course, development of a new method and appropriate computer programs for the analysis cyclicity of sequences of data of solar activity, that will form the basis for the prognosis is very important.

The developed of new apparatus, experimental devices and researches conducted with their use, will allow to find .laws and mechanisms of influence of the factors of space weather, in particular CME, on an organism of the person and biosphere of the Earth in general, and also to predict such influence in conditions of space.

Areas of Application

Protection of health of the population and warning of ecologically dangerous situations.


Fig. 1 The graph of change of the daily amount calls of the ambulance in connection with
a peaking of illnesses of the blood circulation system (since 01.04.2003 till 30.06.2005


Fig. 2 Smoothed monthly average values of radio emission of the Sun (graph above)
and value of Wolf's numbers (graph below) for period since 02.1947 till 09.2005

Stage of Development

The main development is at the stage of modeling of the prototype - checked and tested on real data of calls of ambulance in Kyiv. The possible further developments, which are based on main, are partially patented. The analysis of their technical fulfillment is conducted by modeling of main nodes of the prototype, available for researches.

Contact Details

Space Research Institute National Academy and National Space Agency of Ukraine (SRI NAS and NSA of Ukraine)
Contact person: Mykhailo Lychak
Address: 40, korp. 4/1, Acad. Glushkov prosp., MSP 03680, Kiev, Ukraine
Tel.: (+380.44) 526 1291, (+38) 097-8271502
Fax: (+380.44) 526 4124
E-mail: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

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